Yep, that's just what I'm thinking. Maybe it's just random and all that "facts" are fake?..
I wouldn't say "fake" exactly. The problem with discovering the actual facts is that there is a lot of random chance to conceal them. All people can do really is make observations.
My observation on this, taken from both my own experience and things people have said have happened in their game, is that death from old age is treated as a random birthday. It would seem that every day an elder sim wakes up, there is a random chance that this day is their last birthday. This chance
seems to be affected by certain things, like vegetarianism and the athletics challenge in question. Like Juxtaposition, I have also noticed that employment
seems to affect this chance, and it really wouldn't surprise me to discover that a sims happiness throughout their life
seems to affect it as well, if I choose to investigate it.
However, the key words in all of that is "seems." Because, as Pam stated: through the course of any extensive investigation, you're very likely to encounter at least one sim, who does not fit the profile you've worked up, who seems to defy the odds.