I looked through the files and found what affects styling. The first two values allow the "offer makeover" to appear on the socialization pie menu for "unofficial" makeovers (those which are not official jobs for the day). These rules do not apply to official makeovers. They only affect visibility of the "offer makeover" option, and the developer specifically mentions these values do
not affect success/failure of a completed makeover.
kLtrThresholdForMakeover = -80
This means we cannot offer a spontaneous makeover to super-enemies. We must have -80 lifetime relationship or higher for the "offer makeover" option to appear.
kStcThresholdForMakeover = -80
This means we cannot offer spontaneous makeovers to people whose current conversation status is "very angry" or "bored." The current conversation status must be okay, sociable, or friendly.
kMakeoverFailureChancesPerStylingSkillLevel = 40%, 35%, 30%, 25%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 3%, 2%, 1%
The numbers above are the random chances to fail at Styling skill levels 0 through 10. You can see the stylist skill with any "hidden skills unhidden" mod. It's possible to reach level 10 in the stylist career while still having a low styling skill. The commonly-cited tips below do
not appear to affect success rate:
- Best friend status
- Socialization
- Matching favorite color
- Adding outfits instead of replacing them
- Lucky trait
The only way to improve our odds is doing more styling to raise our Styling skill. Each makeover (failed or success) raises our skill level, and working on the drafting table also raises skill. There is still a chance to fail makeovers at maximum skill. I had 7 styling skill, so I probably had a string of bad luck.