This is my timeline of starting a new quest.
Wed - 3:35 pm
-100 to -99 mood = Very Unfocused, -3 arrows
-98 to -40 mood = Unfocused, -2 arrows
-39 to -1 mood = slightly Unfocused, -1 arrows
0 to +1 mood = no buff, No Arrows
+2 to +79 mood = Slightly Focused, +1 arrow
+80 to +197 mood = Focused, +2 arrow
+198 to +200 mood = Very Focused, +3 arrows
Thu - 3:35 pm (24 hours after starting)
Falling behind on quest - 8 hours (No Effect)
Thu - 11:35 pm
Behind on Quest - 16 hours
-100 to -99 mood = Very Unfocused, -3 arrows
-98 to -40 mood = Unfocused, -3 arrows
-39 to -1 mood = slightly Unfocused, -2 arrows
0 to +1 mood = no buff, -2 Arrows
+2 to +79 mood = Slightly Focused, -1 arrow
+80 to +197 mood = Focused, +1 arrow
+198 to +200 mood = Very Focused, +2 arrows
Will update shortly what happens after 16 hours. Will also see if the original 24 hour period changes between steps of the quest.
Edit:
Fri - 3:35 pm
Dangerously Behind on Quest (Permanent)
-100 to -99 mood = Very Unfocused, -3 arrows
-98 to -40 mood = Unfocused, -3 arrows
-39 to -1 mood = slightly Unfocused, -3 arrows
0 to +1 mood = no buff, -3 Arrows
+2 to +79 mood = Slightly Focused, -3 arrows
+80 to +197 mood = Focused, -2 arrows
+198 to +200 mood = Very Focused, -1 arrow
Completed one stage of quest (Legendary fountain quest, kissed someone)
Behind on quest - 12 Hours
Completed Another Step
Falling Behind on Quest - 6 Hours
Completed Another Step
Buff removed
First buff came back about 4 hours later.
Conclusion:
0 hours = Start of Quest
24 hours = Falling Behind
32 hours = Behind
48 hours = Dangerously Behind
Each action you do towards the quest reduces this progression by some hours, it seems to differ per action.
Kissing someone in the fountain quest restores 12 hours, talking to the queen only restored 8.